CFB
Where they rank
Team-advanced percentile vs. the FBS field · descriptive only, not a prediction of Saturday.
Illinois
Offensive efficiency (PPA)75th pct.
Offensive success rate86th pct.
Explosiveness59th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)3th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed12th pct.
Havoc rate8th pct.
Michigan State
Offensive efficiency (PPA)14th pct.
Offensive success rate51th pct.
Explosiveness4th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)20th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed32th pct.
Havoc rate12th pct.
Illinois · Returning production
Overall (PPA)21.1%
Passing3.2%
Rushing34.2%
Receiving31.3%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 14-7-1 · O/U 8-14 · avg. margin +1.6
Michigan State · Returning production
Overall (PPA)20.9%
Passing16.2%
Rushing18.5%
Receiving24.4%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 11-10 · O/U 11-10 · avg. margin -7.6
Head-to-head
Last 5 meetings2026Illinois 38–37 Michigan State
2024Michigan State 16–38 Illinois
2022Michigan State 23–15 Illinois
2019Illinois 37–34 Michigan State
2016Michigan State 27–31 Illinois
Venue & conditions
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
78°F · 12.6 mph wind · 7% precip. chance