Sat, Oct 10 · 3:30 PM ET
Illinois at Michigan State
Illinois favored by 2.5 · total 48.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
IllinoisFighting Illini
Away · Big Ten
-2.5
-142
ML
Michigan StateSpartans
Home · Big Ten
+2.5
+120
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Illinois | Michigan State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21% | 21% |
| Passing | 3% | 16% |
| Rushing | 34% | 19% |
| Receiving | 31% | 24% |
The read
- At 2.5 the line sits just short of 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- A total of 48.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Illinois
14-7-1 ATS · 15-7 SU
8-14 O/U · 3-4 away
Michigan State
11-10 ATS · 7-14 SU
11-10 O/U · 2-8 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Michigan State +3 versus the market's +2.5
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
2.5 → 2.5unmoved
Total
49.5 → 48.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.