Dynasty & keeper values

NFL dynasty values

What each player is worth over the next three seasons: his production rate, how players his age at his position have aged in our logs, and how many games players like him actually play — on a 0–100 scale above replacement.

2026–28

rest of 2026 + 2 seasons

258

players valued

0.55 / 0.61

backtest rank corr. (2022, 2023)

2015-2026

our game logs

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB1DETage 24.6

100.0T1 · Cornerstone

2026 rest · age 24.5

153

17.1 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 25.5

216

17 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 26.5

195

16.7 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 17.1 std ppg = production 17.6 blended with opportunity-implied 14.2. Sample: 2026: 5g 25.3, 2025: 17g 17.1, 2024: 17g 18.3 (39 games). Draft: 2023 R1.12. Expected weighted points: 442.

Josh Allen

QB1BUFage 30.4

96.9T1 · Cornerstone

2026 rest · age 30.3

209

21.4 ppg × 9.8 g

2027 · age 31.3

294

21.2 ppg × 13.8 g

2028 · age 32.3

275

20.9 ppg × 13.2 g

Rate 21.4 std ppg = production 21.9 blended with opportunity-implied 18.9. Sample: 2026: 5g 28.4, 2025: 16g 22.8, 2024: 16g 23.7 (37 games). Draft: 2018 R1.7. Expected weighted points: 610.

Bijan Robinson

RB2ATLage 24.7

91.6T1 · Cornerstone

2026 rest · age 24.6

145

16.2 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 25.6

204

16.1 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 26.6

184

15.8 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 16.2 std ppg = production 16.4 blended with opportunity-implied 15.1. Sample: 2026: 5g 20.6, 2025: 17g 17.2, 2024: 17g 16.5 (39 games). Draft: 2023 R1.8. Expected weighted points: 419.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR1SEAage 24.7

74.2T2 · Elite

2026 rest · age 24.5

122

12.6 ppg × 9.8 g

2027 · age 25.5

174

12.6 ppg × 13.8 g

2028 · age 26.5

159

12.4 ppg × 12.8 g

Rate 12.6 std ppg = production 12.5 blended with opportunity-implied 12.8. Sample: 2026: 6g 19.3, 2025: 17g 14.2, 2024: 17g 9.0 (40 games). Draft: 2023 R1.20. Expected weighted points: 357.

Patrick Mahomes

QB2KCage 31.1

69.4T2 · Elite

2026 rest · age 31

194

18.4 ppg × 10.6 g

2027 · age 32

250

18.1 ppg × 13.8 g

2028 · age 33

231

17.6 ppg × 13.2 g

Rate 18.4 std ppg = production 18.4 blended with opportunity-implied 17.9. Sample: 2026: 4g 20.9, 2025: 14g 20.3, 2024: 16g 17.6 (34 games). Draft: 2017 R1.10. Expected weighted points: 533.

James Cook

RB3BUFage 27.1

62.8T2 · Elite

2026 rest · age 26.9

121

13.5 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 27.9

165

13 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 28.9

144

12.3 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 13.5 std ppg = production 13.9 blended with opportunity-implied 11.3. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.5, 2025: 17g 15.8, 2024: 16g 14.7 (38 games). Draft: 2022 R2.63. Expected weighted points: 339.

Ashton Jeanty

RB4LVage 22.9

59.3T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 22.7

112

12.6 ppg × 8.9 g

2027 · age 23.7

163

12.9 ppg × 12.6 g

2028 · age 24.8

145

13 ppg × 11.2 g

Rate 12.6 std ppg = production 12.1 blended with opportunity-implied 15.3. Sample: 2026: 5g 12.5, 2025: 17g 11.2 (22 games). Draft: 2025 R1.6. Expected weighted points: 329.

Kenneth Walker III

RB5KCage 26

57.6T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 25.9

121

12.4 ppg × 9.7 g

2027 · age 26.9

153

12.1 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 27.9

135

11.6 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 12.4 std ppg = production 12.5 blended with opportunity-implied 12. Sample: 2026: 4g 24.5, 2025: 17g 9.5, 2024: 11g 12.3 (32 games). Draft: 2022 R2.41. Expected weighted points: 325.

Jonathan Taylor

RB6INDage 27.7

57.5T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 27.6

118

15.1 ppg × 7.8 g

2027 · age 28.6

160

14.4 ppg × 11.1 g

2028 · age 29.6

131

13.7 ppg × 9.6 g

Rate 15.1 std ppg = production 15.1 blended with opportunity-implied 14.8. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.9, 2025: 17g 18.6, 2024: 14g 16.2 (36 games). Draft: 2020 R2.41. Expected weighted points: 325.

Joe Burrow

QB3CINage 29.8

57.1T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 29.7

172

18.1 ppg × 9.5 g

2027 · age 30.7

242

18 ppg × 13.5 g

2028 · age 31.7

222

17.8 ppg × 12.5 g

Rate 18.1 std ppg = production 18.3 blended with opportunity-implied 17. Sample: 2026: 5g 20.2, 2025: 8g 16.8, 2024: 17g 21.9 (30 games). Draft: 2020 R1.1. Expected weighted points: 499.

Jared Goff

QB4DETage 32

56.8T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 31.9

175

17.9 ppg × 9.8 g

2027 · age 32.9

240

17.4 ppg × 13.8 g

2028 · age 33.9

219

16.6 ppg × 13.2 g

Rate 17.9 std ppg = production 18.3 blended with opportunity-implied 15.2. Sample: 2026: 5g 23.0, 2025: 17g 17.5, 2024: 17g 19.0 (39 games). Draft: 2016 R1.1. Expected weighted points: 498.

Lamar Jackson

QB5BALage 29.8

56.7T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 29.6

171

18.1 ppg × 9.5 g

2027 · age 30.6

242

18 ppg × 13.5 g

2028 · age 31.6

222

17.7 ppg × 12.5 g

Rate 18.1 std ppg = production 18.5 blended with opportunity-implied 15.4. Sample: 2026: 4g 19.8, 2025: 13g 16.5, 2024: 17g 25.3 (34 games). Draft: 2018 R1.32. Expected weighted points: 498.

Jayden Daniels

QB6WASage 25.8

56.0T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 25.7

170

18.2 ppg × 9.4 g

2027 · age 26.7

238

18 ppg × 13.3 g

2028 · age 27.7

225

17.7 ppg × 12.7 g

Rate 18.2 std ppg = production 18 blended with opportunity-implied 18.9. Sample: 2026: 3g 21.6, 2025: 7g 16.3, 2024: 17g 20.9 (27 games). Draft: 2024 R1.2. Expected weighted points: 496.

Puka Nacua

WR2LAage 25.4

54.3T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 25.3

105

10.7 ppg × 9.8 g

2027 · age 26.3

147

10.6 ppg × 13.8 g

2028 · age 27.3

132

10.3 ppg × 12.8 g

Rate 10.7 std ppg = production 10.5 blended with opportunity-implied 12. Sample: 2026: 3g 15.6, 2025: 16g 15.4, 2024: 11g 11.6 (30 games). Draft: 2023 R5.177. Expected weighted points: 301.

Ja'Marr Chase

WR3CINage 26.6

53.9T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 26.5

106

10.9 ppg × 9.8 g

2027 · age 27.5

146

10.6 ppg × 13.8 g

2028 · age 28.5

129

10 ppg × 12.8 g

Rate 10.9 std ppg = production 10.9 blended with opportunity-implied 10.7. Sample: 2026: 5g 10.6, 2025: 16g 11.8, 2024: 17g 16.2 (38 games). Draft: 2021 R1.5. Expected weighted points: 300.

Christian McCaffrey

RB7SFage 30.4

51.7T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 30.2

117

15.2 ppg × 7.7 g

2027 · age 31.2

155

14.2 ppg × 10.9 g

2028 · age 32.2

113

13.1 ppg × 8.6 g

Rate 15.2 std ppg = production 15.2 blended with opportunity-implied 15.2. Sample: 2026: 5g 14.5, 2025: 17g 18.5, 2024: 4g 8.2 (26 games). Draft: 2017 R1.8. Expected weighted points: 309.

Drake Maye

QB7NEage 24.1

50.9T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 24

164

17.5 ppg × 9.4 g

2027 · age 25

232

17.5 ppg × 13.3 g

2028 · age 26

221

17.4 ppg × 12.7 g

Rate 17.5 std ppg = production 17.6 blended with opportunity-implied 17. Sample: 2026: 5g 17.4, 2025: 17g 20.6, 2024: 13g 13.6 (35 games). Draft: 2024 R1.3. Expected weighted points: 482.

Caleb Williams

QB8CHIage 24.9

49.4T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 24.8

163

17.4 ppg × 9.4 g

2027 · age 25.8

230

17.3 ppg × 13.3 g

2028 · age 26.8

217

17.1 ppg × 12.7 g

Rate 17.4 std ppg = production 17.3 blended with opportunity-implied 18. Sample: 2026: 2g 22.5, 2025: 17g 18.6, 2024: 17g 15.0 (36 games). Draft: 2024 R1.1. Expected weighted points: 478.

De'Von Achane

RB8MIAage 25

48.4T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 24.9

105

11.7 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 25.9

146

11.5 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 26.9

130

11.1 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 11.7 std ppg = production 11.3 blended with opportunity-implied 13.6. Sample: 2026: 3g 5.9, 2025: 16g 16.0, 2024: 17g 13.1 (36 games). Draft: 2023 R3.84. Expected weighted points: 299.

Jeremiyah LoveR

RB9ARIage 21.4

47.9T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 21.3

11 ppg × 8.9 g

2027 · age 22.3

147

11.7 ppg × 12.6 g

2028 · age 23.3

136

12.1 ppg × 11.2 g

Rate 11 std ppg = production 11 blended with opportunity-implied 11.1. Sample: 2026: 5g 8.0 (5 games). Draft: 2026 R1.3. Expected weighted points: 298.

Jalen Hurts

QB9PHIage 28.2

47.5T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 28.1

162

17.1 ppg × 9.5 g

2027 · age 29.1

229

17 ppg × 13.5 g

2028 · age 30.1

212

16.9 ppg × 12.5 g

Rate 17.1 std ppg = production 17 blended with opportunity-implied 17.9. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.0, 2025: 16g 18.8, 2024: 15g 21.0 (36 games). Draft: 2020 R2.53. Expected weighted points: 472.

Trevor Lawrence

QB10JAXage 27

47.2T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 26.9

162

17.3 ppg × 9.4 g

2027 · age 27.9

226

17.1 ppg × 13.3 g

2028 · age 28.9

215

16.9 ppg × 12.7 g

Rate 17.3 std ppg = production 17.5 blended with opportunity-implied 15.9. Sample: 2026: 5g 17.4, 2025: 17g 19.9, 2024: 10g 14.5 (32 games). Draft: 2021 R1.1. Expected weighted points: 471.

Derrick Henry

RB10BALage 32.8

46.8T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 32.7

113

14.7 ppg × 7.7 g

2027 · age 33.7

147

13.5 ppg × 10.9 g

2028 · age 34.7

106

12.3 ppg × 8.6 g

Rate 14.7 std ppg = production 15.3 blended with opportunity-implied 11.4. Sample: 2026: 5g 20.8, 2025: 17g 15.6, 2024: 17g 18.7 (39 games). Draft: 2016 R2.45. Expected weighted points: 295.

Kyren Williams

RB11LAage 26.1

46.2T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 26

104

11.6 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 27

143

11.2 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 28

125

10.7 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 11.6 std ppg = production 11.5 blended with opportunity-implied 12.4. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.5, 2025: 17g 13.4, 2024: 16g 14.9 (38 games). Draft: 2022 R5.164. Expected weighted points: 293.

Omarion Hampton

RB12LACage 23.6

45.5T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 23.5

100

11.3 ppg × 8.9 g

2027 · age 24.5

144

11.4 ppg × 12.6 g

2028 · age 25.5

127

11.3 ppg × 11.2 g

Rate 11.3 std ppg = production 11.4 blended with opportunity-implied 10.5. Sample: 2026: 5g 8.9, 2025: 9g 11.5 (14 games). Draft: 2025 R1.22. Expected weighted points: 291.

233 more players valued

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How good is this?

We rebuilt the values as of the start of past seasons using only data available then (curves, weights and draft priors refitted on earlier seasons) and compared the order with what players actually scored over the next three seasons (PPR, weighted 1.0 / 0.8 / 0.6). Rank correlation (Spearman): 1 = perfect order, 0 = random. Baseline = ranking by last season's total points.

As of	Our top 200	Baseline's top 200	Top-24 hits
2022 (2022-2024)	0.55 vs 0.50	0.69 vs 0.60	10/24 vs 12
2023 (2023-2025)	0.61 vs 0.41	0.61 vs 0.53	11/24 vs 9

Read: ours vs baseline on the same players. By position (our top 40 QB / 60 RB / 80 WR / 40 TE): 2022 QB 0.53 vs 0.48, RB 0.64 vs 0.36, WR 0.61 vs 0.60, TE 0.61 vs 0.53; 2023 QB 0.61 vs 0.49, RB 0.65 vs 0.25, WR 0.67 vs 0.47, TE 0.41 vs 0.50. Incoming rookies (valued from draft slot only): 2022 0.52 (n=79), 2023 0.69 (n=82). Summary: Overall better than the baseline (avg +0.08); clearly better at QB/RB/WR; about even at TE; top-24 hits about even (avg +0.0). 2 backtest seasons is a small sample — treat values as a well-reasoned starting point, not a guarantee.

How the values are built

Inputs. Our NFL game logs (nflverse weekly stats, regular season, 2015-2026 (through week 5)); birth dates and NFL draft slot from the nflverse player file. A “game” is a week with a stat line. QB/RB/WR/TE only.

1. Production rate. Points per game over his last three seasons weighted 1 / 0.5 / 0.25 (newest first), plus 8 pseudo-games at the average for his position and draft round in years 1–3 (so a 3-game sample can't look like a star). Blended 15% with an opportunity-implied rate — points per game predicted from target share (WR/TE), carry share + target share (RB) or pass attempts + carries (QB); R² QB 0.69, RB 0.86, WR 0.82, TE 0.75. The weights, prior size and blend were chosen to best predict next-season points per game on past seasons (error ±2.59 ppg).

2. Age curve. For every player with 6+ games in back-to-back seasons we measured the change in points per game by age, per position (2015–2025), and smoothed it with a Gaussian kernel. Examples (RB): 22: +0.48, 24: -0.01, 26: -0.38, 28: -0.69, 30: -0.92 ppg per year. Only survivors are in this curve, so it understates decline; retirement and lost jobs live in step 3.

3. Expected games. How many games players at his position, age band and quality level actually logged 1, 2 and 3 seasons later in our data — zero if they vanished. For 2026 we count only his team's remaining games (week 5 done).

4. Value. Expected points per season, weighted 1.0 / 0.8 / 0.6 across 2026, 2027, 2028, counted only above replacement (12-team 1QB: QB13, RB30, WR42, TE13 in that season), then scaled so #1 = 100. Tiers: Tier 1 ≥ 80 · 2 ≥ 60 · 3 ≥ 40 · 4 ≥ 25 · 5 ≥ 12 · 6 > 0. Superflex, TE premium and longer horizons aren't modelled yet.

Not in the number: injuries in progress, contracts, depth-chart changes, coaching. Rookies with no NFL games are valued from their draft slot only. Updated 2026-10-16.