Dynasty & keeper values

NFL dynasty values

What each player is worth over the next three seasons: his production rate, how players his age at his position have aged in our logs, and how many games players like him actually play — on a 0–100 scale above replacement.

2026–28

rest of 2026 + 2 seasons

258

players valued

0.55 / 0.61

backtest rank corr. (2022, 2023)

2015-2026

our game logs

Jahmyr Gibbs

RB1DETage 24.6

100.0T1 · Cornerstone

2026 rest · age 24.5

153

17.1 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 25.5

216

17 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 26.5

195

16.7 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 17.1 std ppg = production 17.6 blended with opportunity-implied 14.2. Sample: 2026: 5g 25.3, 2025: 17g 17.1, 2024: 17g 18.3 (39 games). Draft: 2023 R1.12. Expected weighted points: 442.

Bijan Robinson

RB2ATLage 24.7

91.6T1 · Cornerstone

2026 rest · age 24.6

145

16.2 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 25.6

204

16.1 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 26.6

184

15.8 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 16.2 std ppg = production 16.4 blended with opportunity-implied 15.1. Sample: 2026: 5g 20.6, 2025: 17g 17.2, 2024: 17g 16.5 (39 games). Draft: 2023 R1.8. Expected weighted points: 419.

James Cook

RB3BUFage 27.1

62.8T2 · Elite

2026 rest · age 26.9

121

13.5 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 27.9

165

13 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 28.9

144

12.3 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 13.5 std ppg = production 13.9 blended with opportunity-implied 11.3. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.5, 2025: 17g 15.8, 2024: 16g 14.7 (38 games). Draft: 2022 R2.63. Expected weighted points: 339.

Ashton Jeanty

RB4LVage 22.9

59.3T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 22.7

112

12.6 ppg × 8.9 g

2027 · age 23.7

163

12.9 ppg × 12.6 g

2028 · age 24.8

145

13 ppg × 11.2 g

Rate 12.6 std ppg = production 12.1 blended with opportunity-implied 15.3. Sample: 2026: 5g 12.5, 2025: 17g 11.2 (22 games). Draft: 2025 R1.6. Expected weighted points: 329.

Kenneth Walker III

RB5KCage 26

57.6T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 25.9

121

12.4 ppg × 9.7 g

2027 · age 26.9

153

12.1 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 27.9

135

11.6 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 12.4 std ppg = production 12.5 blended with opportunity-implied 12. Sample: 2026: 4g 24.5, 2025: 17g 9.5, 2024: 11g 12.3 (32 games). Draft: 2022 R2.41. Expected weighted points: 325.

Jonathan Taylor

RB6INDage 27.7

57.5T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 27.6

118

15.1 ppg × 7.8 g

2027 · age 28.6

160

14.4 ppg × 11.1 g

2028 · age 29.6

131

13.7 ppg × 9.6 g

Rate 15.1 std ppg = production 15.1 blended with opportunity-implied 14.8. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.9, 2025: 17g 18.6, 2024: 14g 16.2 (36 games). Draft: 2020 R2.41. Expected weighted points: 325.

Christian McCaffrey

RB7SFage 30.4

51.7T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 30.2

117

15.2 ppg × 7.7 g

2027 · age 31.2

155

14.2 ppg × 10.9 g

2028 · age 32.2

113

13.1 ppg × 8.6 g

Rate 15.2 std ppg = production 15.2 blended with opportunity-implied 15.2. Sample: 2026: 5g 14.5, 2025: 17g 18.5, 2024: 4g 8.2 (26 games). Draft: 2017 R1.8. Expected weighted points: 309.

De'Von Achane

RB8MIAage 25

48.4T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 24.9

105

11.7 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 25.9

146

11.5 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 26.9

130

11.1 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 11.7 std ppg = production 11.3 blended with opportunity-implied 13.6. Sample: 2026: 3g 5.9, 2025: 16g 16.0, 2024: 17g 13.1 (36 games). Draft: 2023 R3.84. Expected weighted points: 299.

Jeremiyah LoveR

RB9ARIage 21.4

47.9T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 21.3

11 ppg × 8.9 g

2027 · age 22.3

147

11.7 ppg × 12.6 g

2028 · age 23.3

136

12.1 ppg × 11.2 g

Rate 11 std ppg = production 11 blended with opportunity-implied 11.1. Sample: 2026: 5g 8.0 (5 games). Draft: 2026 R1.3. Expected weighted points: 298.

Derrick Henry

RB10BALage 32.8

46.8T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 32.7

113

14.7 ppg × 7.7 g

2027 · age 33.7

147

13.5 ppg × 10.9 g

2028 · age 34.7

106

12.3 ppg × 8.6 g

Rate 14.7 std ppg = production 15.3 blended with opportunity-implied 11.4. Sample: 2026: 5g 20.8, 2025: 17g 15.6, 2024: 17g 18.7 (39 games). Draft: 2016 R2.45. Expected weighted points: 295.

Kyren Williams

RB11LAage 26.1

46.2T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 26

104

11.6 ppg × 9 g

2027 · age 27

143

11.2 ppg × 12.7 g

2028 · age 28

125

10.7 ppg × 11.7 g

Rate 11.6 std ppg = production 11.5 blended with opportunity-implied 12.4. Sample: 2026: 5g 16.5, 2025: 17g 13.4, 2024: 16g 14.9 (38 games). Draft: 2022 R5.164. Expected weighted points: 293.

Omarion Hampton

RB12LACage 23.6

45.5T3 · Core starter

2026 rest · age 23.5

100

11.3 ppg × 8.9 g

2027 · age 24.5

144

11.4 ppg × 12.6 g

2028 · age 25.5

127

11.3 ppg × 11.2 g

Rate 11.3 std ppg = production 11.4 blended with opportunity-implied 10.5. Sample: 2026: 5g 8.9, 2025: 9g 11.5 (14 games). Draft: 2025 R1.22. Expected weighted points: 291.

58 more RB valued

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How good is this?

We rebuilt the values as of the start of past seasons using only data available then (curves, weights and draft priors refitted on earlier seasons) and compared the order with what players actually scored over the next three seasons (PPR, weighted 1.0 / 0.8 / 0.6). Rank correlation (Spearman): 1 = perfect order, 0 = random. Baseline = ranking by last season's total points.

As of	Our top 200	Baseline's top 200	Top-24 hits
2022 (2022-2024)	0.55 vs 0.50	0.69 vs 0.60	10/24 vs 12
2023 (2023-2025)	0.61 vs 0.41	0.61 vs 0.53	11/24 vs 9

Read: ours vs baseline on the same players. By position (our top 40 QB / 60 RB / 80 WR / 40 TE): 2022 QB 0.53 vs 0.48, RB 0.64 vs 0.36, WR 0.61 vs 0.60, TE 0.61 vs 0.53; 2023 QB 0.61 vs 0.49, RB 0.65 vs 0.25, WR 0.67 vs 0.47, TE 0.41 vs 0.50. Incoming rookies (valued from draft slot only): 2022 0.52 (n=79), 2023 0.69 (n=82). Summary: Overall better than the baseline (avg +0.08); clearly better at QB/RB/WR; about even at TE; top-24 hits about even (avg +0.0). 2 backtest seasons is a small sample — treat values as a well-reasoned starting point, not a guarantee.

How the values are built

Inputs. Our NFL game logs (nflverse weekly stats, regular season, 2015-2026 (through week 5)); birth dates and NFL draft slot from the nflverse player file. A “game” is a week with a stat line. QB/RB/WR/TE only.

1. Production rate. Points per game over his last three seasons weighted 1 / 0.5 / 0.25 (newest first), plus 8 pseudo-games at the average for his position and draft round in years 1–3 (so a 3-game sample can't look like a star). Blended 15% with an opportunity-implied rate — points per game predicted from target share (WR/TE), carry share + target share (RB) or pass attempts + carries (QB); R² QB 0.69, RB 0.86, WR 0.82, TE 0.75. The weights, prior size and blend were chosen to best predict next-season points per game on past seasons (error ±2.59 ppg).

2. Age curve. For every player with 6+ games in back-to-back seasons we measured the change in points per game by age, per position (2015–2025), and smoothed it with a Gaussian kernel. Examples (RB): 22: +0.48, 24: -0.01, 26: -0.38, 28: -0.69, 30: -0.92 ppg per year. Only survivors are in this curve, so it understates decline; retirement and lost jobs live in step 3.

3. Expected games. How many games players at his position, age band and quality level actually logged 1, 2 and 3 seasons later in our data — zero if they vanished. For 2026 we count only his team's remaining games (week 5 done).

4. Value. Expected points per season, weighted 1.0 / 0.8 / 0.6 across 2026, 2027, 2028, counted only above replacement (12-team 1QB: QB13, RB30, WR42, TE13 in that season), then scaled so #1 = 100. Tiers: Tier 1 ≥ 80 · 2 ≥ 60 · 3 ≥ 40 · 4 ≥ 25 · 5 ≥ 12 · 6 > 0. Superflex, TE premium and longer horizons aren't modelled yet.

Not in the number: injuries in progress, contracts, depth-chart changes, coaching. Rookies with no NFL games are valued from their draft slot only. Updated 2026-10-16.