Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Ball State at Bowling Green
Bowling Green favored by 6.5 · total 46.5
Ball StateCardinals
Away · Mid-American
+6.5
-112
+205
ML
Bowling GreenFalcons
Home · Mid-American
-6.5
-108
-250
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Ball State | Bowling Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6% | -6%* |
| Passing | 0% | 940%* |
| Rushing | -104%* | 0% |
| Receiving | 32% | 3% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
Player props · 21 players
Anytime TD
+15 more anytime td ladders
Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 16 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 6.5 the line sits just short of 7, so the games decided by exactly 7 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -7.5 to -6.5 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 7, changing the result in 4.6% of historical games.
- A total of 46.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.0 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Ball State
12-10 ATS · 6-16 SU
13-8-1 O/U · 5-8 away
Bowling Green
9-13 ATS · 9-13 SU
9-13 O/U · 3-7 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 6.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 46.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Bowling Green -9.5 versus the market's -6.5 — a 3.0-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-7.5 → -6.5+1.0
Total
44.5 → 46.5+2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.