Thu, Oct 15 · 8:05 PM ET
Colorado State at Texas State
Texas State favored by 15.5 · total 69.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Colorado StateRams
Away · Pac-12
+15.5
+500
ML
Texas StateBobcats
Home · Pac-12
-15.5
-700
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Colorado State | Texas State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 40% | 76% |
| Passing | 23% | 100% |
| Rushing | -28%* | 48% |
| Receiving | 58% | 79% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 25 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from -12.5 to -15.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 14, changing the result in 4.6% of historical games.
- A total of 69.5 sits among the highest quarter of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 6.5 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Colorado State
11-11-1 ATS · 8-15 SU
10-13 O/U · 5-5 away
Texas State
10-14 ATS · 13-11 SU
12-12 O/U · 5-7 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 15.5 — the 14-17 point band. In 708 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 52.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (49.1–56.5%) is taken into account.
- Total 69.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Texas State -9 versus the market's -15.5 — a 6.5-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-12.5 → -15.5-3.0
Total
67.5 → 69.5+2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.