Sat, Sep 12 · 12:00 PM ET
ETSU at North Carolina
North Carolina favored by 36.5 · total 55.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
ETSUBuccaneers
Away · Southern
+36.5
—
ML
North CarolinaTar Heels
Home · ACC
-36.5
—
ML
Tracking isn't available for this game — we couldn't match both teams to our results feed, and we won't take a pick we can't grade.
Returning production
| ETSU | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | — | 28% |
| Passing | — | 10% |
| Rushing | — | 54% |
| Receiving | — | 33% |
The read
- The spread has moved from -34.5 to -36.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 55.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
North Carolina
7-15-1 ATS · 8-15 SU
10-13 O/U · 2-9-1 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 36.5 — the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5–52.7%) is taken into account.
- Total 55.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-34.5 → -36.5-2.0
Total
54.5 → 55.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.