Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
FIU at South Florida
South Florida favored by 14.5 · total 53.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
FIUPanthers
Away · Conference USA
+14.5
+470
ML
South FloridaBulls
Home · American Athletic
-14.5
-650
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Florida International | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32% | 13% |
| Passing | -1%* | 6% |
| Rushing | 16% | -1%* |
| Receiving | 49% | 24% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- At 14.5 the line sits just past 14, so the games decided by exactly 14 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -13.5 to -14.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 14, changing the result in 2.7% of historical games.
- A total of 53.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.2 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Florida International
13-9 ATS · 10-12 SU
14-8 O/U · 4-6 away
South Florida
14-10 ATS · 14-10 SU
15-9 O/U · 7-3 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 14.5 — the 14-17 point band. In 708 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 52.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (49.1–56.5%) is taken into account.
- Total 53.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies South Florida -11.3 versus the market's -14.5 — a 3.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-13.5 → -14.5-1.0
Total
52.5 → 53.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.