Sat, Oct 3 · 3:50 PM ET
Florida at Missouri
Florida favored by 5.5 · total 58.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
FloridaGators
Away · SEC
-5.5
-218
ML
MissouriTigers
Home · SEC
+5.5
+180
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Florida | Missouri | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69% | 42% |
| Passing | 94% | -2%* |
| Rushing | 89% | 78% |
| Receiving | 52% | 33% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from 4.5 to 5.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 58.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 8.2 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Florida
13-9 ATS · 10-12 SU
11-11 O/U · 4-5 away
Missouri
13-10-1 ATS · 16-8 SU
11-12 O/U · 7-5-1 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 5.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 58.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Missouri -2.7 versus the market's +5.5 — a 8.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
4.5 → 5.5+1.0
Total
56.5 → 58.5+2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.