Sat, Sep 5 · 7:45 PM ET
Florida Atlantic at Florida
Florida favored by 25.5 · total 59.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Florida AtlanticOwls
Away · American Athletic
+25.5
+1200
ML
FloridaGators
Home · SEC
-25.5
-2400
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Florida Atlantic | Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 68% | 69% |
| Passing | 93% | 94% |
| Rushing | 107%* | 89% |
| Receiving | 48% | 52% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from -27.5 to -25.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 59.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 8.4 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Florida Atlantic
10-13 ATS · 6-17 SU
14-9 O/U · 5-7 away
Florida
13-9 ATS · 10-12 SU
11-11 O/U · 6-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 25.5 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 59.5 — this game's spread sits in the 21-28 point band. In 688 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 50.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–54.2%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Florida -17.1 versus the market's -25.5 — a 8.4-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-27.5 → -25.5+2.0
Total
59.5 → 59.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.