Thu, Oct 29 · 7:30 PM ET
Florida Atlantic at North Texas
North Texas favored by 13.5 · total 73.5
Florida AtlanticOwls
Away · American Athletic
+13.5
-112
+370
ML
North TexasMean Green
Home · American Athletic
-13.5
-108
-485
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 68% | 3% |
| Passing | 93% | 2% |
| Rushing | 107%* | 3% |
| Receiving | 48% | 2% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 14 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 13.5 the line sits just short of 14, so the games decided by exactly 14 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -12.5 to -13.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 73.5 sits among the highest quarter of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 14.7 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Florida Atlantic
10-13 ATS · 6-17 SU
14-9 O/U · 5-7 away
North Texas
14-10 ATS · 15-9 SU
17-7 O/U · 7-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 13.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 1,140 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.3–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 73.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies North Texas +1.2 versus the market's -13.5 — a 14.7-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-12.5 → -13.5-1.0
Total
69.5 → 73.5+4.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.