Fri, Sep 4 · 9:00 PM ET
Fresno State at USC
USC favored by 22.5 · total 51.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Fresno StateBulldogs
Away · Pac-12
+22.5
+1100
ML
USCTrojans
Home · Big Ten
-22.5
-2100
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Fresno State | USC | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 38% | 59% |
| Passing | 7% | 91% |
| Rushing | 17% | 78% |
| Receiving | 70% | 27% |
The read
- A total of 51.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 6.9 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Fresno State
12-11-1 ATS · 13-11 SU
8-16 O/U · 5-5-1 away
USC
11-13 ATS · 14-10 SU
12-12 O/U · 7-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 22.5 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 51.5 — this game's spread sits in the 21-28 point band. In 688 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 50.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–54.2%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies USC -15.6 versus the market's -22.5 — a 6.9-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-22.5 → -22.5unmoved
Total
51.5 → 51.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.