Sat, Oct 10 · 7:40 PM ET
Georgia at Alabama
Alabama favored by 2.5 · total 51.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
GeorgiaBulldogs
Away · SEC
+2.5
+105
ML
AlabamaCrimson Tide
Home · SEC
-2.5
-125
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Georgia | Alabama | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 69% | 26% |
| Passing | 100% | 12% |
| Rushing | 99% | -67%* |
| Receiving | 35% | 41% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 20 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- 100% chance of rain at kickoff.
- At 2.5 the line sits just short of 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -1.5 to -2.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 51.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 5.9 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Georgia
10-17 ATS · 22-5 SU
11-16 O/U · 3-4 away
Alabama
14-11-2 ATS · 19-8 SU
10-17 O/U · 10-3 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 51.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Alabama +3.4 versus the market's -2.5 — a 5.9-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-1.5 → -2.5-1.0
Total
55.5 → 51.5-4.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.