Sat, Oct 10 · 10:35 PM ET
Hawaii at Arizona State
Arizona State favored by 20.5 · total 51.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
HawaiiRainbow Warriors
Away · Mountain West
+20.5
+950
ML
Arizona StateSun Devils
Home · Big 12
-20.5
-1650
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Hawai'i | Arizona State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 65% | 16% |
| Passing | 91% | 5% |
| Rushing | 21% | -5%* |
| Receiving | 52% | 31% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 20.5 the line sits just short of 21, so the games decided by exactly 21 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- A total of 51.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 12.8 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Hawai'i
14-9-1 ATS · 13-11 SU
9-15 O/U · 3-7 away
Arizona State
18-6-1 ATS · 18-7 SU
13-12 O/U · 8-3-1 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 20.5 — the 17-21 point band. In 639 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.1–54.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 51.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Arizona State -7.7 versus the market's -20.5 — a 12.8-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-20.5 → -20.5unmoved
Total
51.5 → 51.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.