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Sat, Sep 26 ยท 7:30 PM ET

Houston Christian at North Texas

North Texas favored by 38.5 ยท total 60.5

Game has kicked off โ€” lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.

Houston ChristianHuskies

Away ยท Southland

+38.5

โ€”

ML

North TexasMean Green

Home ยท American Athletic

-38.5

โ€”

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadHouston Christian +38.5โ€”
SpreadNorth Texas -38.5โ€”
TotalOver 60.5โ€”
TotalUnder 60.5โ€”

Returning production

Houston ChristianNorth Texas
Overallโ€”3%
Passingโ€”2%
Rushingโ€”3%
Receivingโ€”2%

The read

  • The spread has moved from -37.5 to -38.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
  • A total of 60.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result โ€” overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

Houston ChristianpercentileNorth Texas

With the ball

โ€”Efficiency (PPA)95
โ€”Success rate76
โ€”Explosiveness95
โ€”Points per trip86

Without it

โ€”Efficiency allowed27
โ€”Success rate allowed25
โ€”Havoc60
โ€”Stuff rate38

Last three seasons

Houston Christian

0-2 ATS ยท 0-2 SU

1-1 O/U ยท 0-2 away

North Texas

14-10 ATS ยท 15-9 SU

17-7 O/U ยท 7-4 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 38.5 โ€” the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5โ€“52.7%) is taken into account.
  • Total 60.5 โ€” this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9โ€“58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at โˆ’110.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

Total60.5O โ€” ยท U โ€”

Line movement

Spread (home)

-37.5 โ†’ -38.5-1.0

Total

58.5 โ†’ 60.5+2.0

flips 0.8%133 checks ยท Sep 23 โ€“ Sep 26

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

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