Sat, Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Iowa at Michigan
Michigan favored by 4.5 · total 40.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
IowaHawkeyes
Away · Big Ten
+4.5
+170
ML
MichiganWolverines
Home · Big Ten
-4.5
-205
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Iowa | Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34% | 69% |
| Passing | 16% | 104%* |
| Rushing | 20% | 59% |
| Receiving | 56% | 60% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from -5.5 to -4.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 40.5 sits among the lowest quarter of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Iowa
14-9-1 ATS · 15-9 SU
15-8 O/U · 6-4 away
Michigan
10-16 ATS · 17-9 SU
14-12 O/U · 5-9 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 4.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 40.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Michigan -4.2 versus the market's -4.5
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-5.5 → -4.5+1.0
Total
38.5 → 40.5+2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.