Sat, Sep 19 · 6:30 PM ET
Marshall at Missouri State
Marshall favored by 4 · total 52.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
MarshallThundering Herd
Away · Sun Belt
-4
-192
ML
Missouri StateBears
Home · Conference USA
+4
+160
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Marshall | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 99% | 31% |
| Passing | 100%* | 5% |
| Rushing | 210%* | -3%* |
| Receiving | 91% | 47% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from 3.5 to 4 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 52.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Marshall
17-5-1 ATS · 14-9 SU
12-11 O/U · 9-3-1 away
Missouri State
6-6 ATS · 6-6 SU
5-7 O/U · 4-2 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 4 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 52.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Missouri State +4.8 versus the market's +4
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
3.5 → 4+0.5
Total
51.5 → 52.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.