Sat, Sep 12 · 6:00 PM ET
Memphis at Boise State
Boise State favored by 9.5 · total 54.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
MemphisTigers
Away · American Athletic
+9.5
+285
ML
Boise StateBroncos
Home · Pac-12
-9.5
-360
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Memphis | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6% | 66% |
| Passing | 2% | 94% |
| Rushing | 0% | 100%* |
| Receiving | 11% | 40% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 15 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 9.5 the line sits just short of 10, so the games decided by exactly 10 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -7.5 to -9.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 54.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.6 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Memphis
11-10-2 ATS · 16-7 SU
13-10 O/U · 5-4 away
Boise State
14-11-2 ATS · 20-7 SU
12-15 O/U · 9-4 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 9.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,074 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (48.2–54.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 54.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Boise State -5.9 versus the market's -9.5 — a 3.6-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-7.5 → -9.5-2.0
Total
55.5 → 54.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.