Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Mississippi State at LSU
LSU favored by 17.5 · total 56.5
Mississippi StateBulldogs
Away · SEC
+17.5
-118
+550
ML
LSUTigers
Home · SEC
-17.5
-102
-800
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Mississippi State | LSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34% | 21% |
| Passing | -0%* | 13% |
| Rushing | 87% | 40% |
| Receiving | 28% | 20% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
Player props · 25 players
Passing yards
Rushing yards
Receiving yards
Anytime TD
+18 more anytime td ladders
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Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 16 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 17.5 the line sits just past 17, so the games decided by exactly 17 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -10.5 to -17.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 14 and 17, changing the result in 9.7% of historical games.
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 4.3 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Mississippi State
13-10 ATS · 5-18 SU
13-10 O/U · 7-3 away
LSU
9-15 ATS · 14-10 SU
8-16 O/U · 5-7 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 17.5 — the 17-21 point band. In 639 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.1–54.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies LSU -13.2 versus the market's -17.5 — a 4.3-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-10.5 → -17.5-7.0
Total
58.5 → 56.5-2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.