Missouri at Mississippi State

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

Returning production

* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.

The read

• At 3.5 the line sits just past 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
• The spread has moved from -6.5 to -3.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
• A total of 58.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
• SP+ and the market differ by 8.1 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.

Team profile

How games at these numbers have gone

• Spread 3.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
• Total 58.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.

SP+ team strength · 2026

SP+ implies Mississippi State +4.6 versus the market's -3.5 — a 8.1-point disagreement.

Context, not a pick — tap the ⓘ for what these numbers mean and what we measured.