Missouri State at SMU

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

Returning production

* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.

The read

• The spread has moved from -34.5 to -30.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
• A total of 60.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
• SP+ and the market differ by 6.7 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.

Team profile

How games at these numbers have gone

• Spread 30.5 — the 28-35 point band. In 425 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 46.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (41.9–51.3%) is taken into account.
• Total 60.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.

SP+ team strength · 2026

SP+ implies SMU -23.8 versus the market's -30.5 — a 6.7-point disagreement.

Context, not a pick — tap the ⓘ for what these numbers mean and what we measured.