Sat, Sep 5 · 7:00 PM ET
Missouri State at Texas A&M
Texas A&M favored by 38.5 · total 53.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Missouri StateBears
Away · Conference USA
+38.5
—
ML
Texas A&MAggies
Home · SEC
-38.5
—
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Missouri State | Texas A&M | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31% | 73% |
| Passing | 5% | 97% |
| Rushing | -3%* | 68% |
| Receiving | 47% | 61% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from -41.5 to -38.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 53.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 8.7 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Missouri State
6-6 ATS · 6-6 SU
5-7 O/U · 2-3 away
Texas A&M
8-16 ATS · 17-7 SU
14-10 O/U · 4-9 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 38.5 — the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5–52.7%) is taken into account.
- Total 53.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Texas A&M -29.8 versus the market's -38.5 — a 8.7-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-41.5 → -38.5+3.0
Total
53.5 → 53.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.