Thu, Oct 8 · 7:05 PM ET
Missouri State at Western Kentucky
Missouri State favored by 1.5 · total 56.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Missouri StateBears
Away · Conference USA
-1.5
-123
ML
Western KentuckyHilltoppers
Home · Conference USA
+1.5
-108
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Missouri State | Western Kentucky | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31% | 84% |
| Passing | 5% | 95% |
| Rushing | -3%* | 55% |
| Receiving | 47% | 85% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 12.1 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Missouri State
6-6 ATS · 6-6 SU
5-7 O/U · 2-3 away
Western Kentucky
15-9 ATS · 15-9 SU
10-14 O/U · 7-3 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Western Kentucky -10.6 versus the market's +1.5 — a 12.1-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
1.5 → 1.5unmoved
Total
56.5 → 56.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.