Sat, Aug 29 · 3:30 PM ET
NC State at Virginia
Virginia favored by 4 · total 50.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
NC StateWolfpack
Away · ACC
+4
+154
ML
VirginiaCavaliers
Home · ACC
-4
-185
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| NC State | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 60% | 10% |
| Passing | 93% | 1% |
| Rushing | 102%* | 21% |
| Receiving | 26% | 9% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from -5.5 to -4 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 50.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
NC State
10-13-1 ATS · 12-12 SU
13-11 O/U · 4-5 away
Virginia
15-9 ATS · 15-9 SU
7-17 O/U · 7-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 4 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 50.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Virginia -4.2 versus the market's -4
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-5.5 → -4+1.5
Total
54.5 → 50.5-4.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.