Sat, Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Nevada at Middle Tennessee
Nevada favored by 3.5 · total 49.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
NevadaWolf Pack
Away · Mountain West
-3.5
-191
ML
Middle TennesseeBlue Raiders
Home · Conference USA
+3.5
+143
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Nevada | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 36% | 33% |
| Passing | -130%* | 39% |
| Rushing | -12%* | 60% |
| Receiving | 41% | 26% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 14 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 3.5 the line sits just past 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from 5.5 to 3.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 4.0 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Nevada
11-11-2 ATS · 5-19 SU
10-14 O/U · 7-5 away
Middle Tennessee
9-12 ATS · 5-16 SU
10-11 O/U · 4-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 3.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Middle Tennessee +7.5 versus the market's +3.5 — a 4.0-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
5.5 → 3.5-2.0
Total
51.5 → 49.5-2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.