Wed, Oct 21 · 8:00 PM ET
New Mexico State at Sam Houston
New Mexico State favored by 2.5 · total 47.5
New Mexico StateAggies
Away · Conference USA
-2.5
-110
-135
ML
Sam HoustonBearkats
Home · Conference USA
+2.5
-110
+114
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| New Mexico State | Sam Houston | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24% | 58% |
| Passing | 40% | -31%* |
| Rushing | 81% | -3%* |
| Receiving | 30% | 57% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- At 2.5 the line sits just short of 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- A total of 47.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
New Mexico State
10-11 ATS · 4-17 SU
12-8-1 O/U · 5-6 away
Sam Houston
10-14 ATS · 12-12 SU
11-13 O/U · 3-2 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 47.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Sam Houston +2.5 versus the market's +2.5
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at +2.5 and the total at 47.5 across 10 checks between Oct 16. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.