Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 PM ET
North Dakota State at Air Force
North Dakota State favored by 1.5 · total 48.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
North Dakota StateBison
Away · Mountain West
-1.5
-122
ML
Air ForceFalcons
Home · Mountain West
+1.5
+102
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| North Dakota State | Air Force | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | — | 57% |
| Passing | — | 102%* |
| Rushing | — | 70% |
| Receiving | — | 13% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 15 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from 6.5 to 1.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 3, changing the result in 10.1% of historical games.
- A total of 48.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.1 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
North Dakota State
1-0 ATS · 0-1 SU
0-1 O/U · 1-0 away
Air Force
9-13 ATS · 7-15 SU
11-11 O/U · 2-8 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 48.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Air Force -1.6 versus the market's +1.5 — a 3.1-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
6.5 → 1.5-5.0
Total
49.5 → 48.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.