Thu, Oct 1 · 9:00 PM ET
North Texas at Tulsa
North Texas favored by 3 · total 56.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
North TexasMean Green
Away · American Athletic
-3
-155
ML
TulsaGolden Hurricane
Home · American Athletic
+3
+130
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| North Texas | Tulsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3% | 41% |
| Passing | 2% | 69% |
| Rushing | 3% | 11% |
| Receiving | 2% | 42% |
The read
- Forecast winds around 15 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The number sits exactly on 3, one of the margins college games land on most often — so a half-point move either way changes more results here than the same move anywhere else on the board.
- The spread has moved from -1.5 to 3 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 1, changing the result in 4.8% of historical games.
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 9.3 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
North Texas
14-10 ATS · 15-9 SU
17-7 O/U · 6-5 away
Tulsa
9-12 ATS · 5-16 SU
12-9 O/U · 4-6 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 3 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Tulsa -6.3 versus the market's +3 — a 9.3-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-1.5 → 3+4.5
Total
58.5 → 56.5-2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.