Sat, Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET
Penn State at Michigan
Michigan favored by 6 · total 42.5
Penn StateNittany Lions
Away · Big Ten
+6
-108
+190
ML
MichiganWolverines
Home · Big Ten
-6
-112
-230
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Penn State | Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8% | 69% |
| Passing | 3% | 104%* |
| Rushing | -2%* | 59% |
| Receiving | 15% | 60% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
Player props · 26 players
Passing yards
Receiving yards
Rushing yards
Anytime TD
+18 more anytime td ladders
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Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- The spread has moved from -6.5 to -6 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 42.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Penn State
13-15 ATS · 19-9 SU
15-13 O/U · 5-5 away
Michigan
10-16 ATS · 17-9 SU
14-12 O/U · 5-9 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 6 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 42.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Michigan -3.1 versus the market's -6 — a 2.9-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-6.5 → -6+0.5
Total
42.5 → 42.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.