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Sat, Oct 3 ยท 3:35 PM ET

Samford at UAB

UAB favored by 30.5 ยท total 54.5

Game has kicked off โ€” lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.

SamfordBulldogs

Away ยท Southern

+30.5

+2200

ML

UABBlazers

Home ยท American Athletic

-30.5

-8000

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadSamford +30.5โ€”
SpreadUAB -30.5โ€”
TotalOver 54.5โ€”
TotalUnder 54.5โ€”
MoneylineSamford to win+2200
MoneylineUAB to win-8000

Returning production

SamfordUAB
Overallโ€”80%
Passingโ€”100%
Rushingโ€”63%
Receivingโ€”74%

The read

  • A total of 54.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result โ€” overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

SamfordpercentileUAB

With the ball

โ€”Efficiency (PPA)19
โ€”Success rate43
โ€”Explosiveness25
โ€”Points per trip12

Without it

โ€”Efficiency allowed55
โ€”Success rate allowed20
โ€”Havoc37
โ€”Stuff rate4

Last three seasons

Samford

2-0 ATS ยท 0-2 SU

0-2 O/U ยท 2-0 away

UAB

7-14 ATS ยท 5-16 SU

10-9-1 O/U ยท 3-7 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 30.5 โ€” the 28-35 point band. In 425 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 46.6% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (41.9โ€“51.3%) is taken into account.
  • Total 54.5 โ€” this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9โ€“58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at โˆ’110.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

Total54.5O โ€” ยท U โ€”

Line movement

Spread (home)

-30.5 โ†’ -30.5unmoved

Total

50.5 โ†’ 54.5+4.0

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

Other games

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