San Diego State at Toledo

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

Returning production

The read

• At 2.5 the line sits just short of 3, so the games decided by exactly 3 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
• A total of 50.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
• SP+ and the market differ by 6.6 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.

Team profile

How games at these numbers have gone

• Spread 2.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
• Total 50.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.

SP+ team strength · 2026

SP+ implies Toledo +4.1 versus the market's -2.5 — a 6.6-point disagreement.

Context, not a pick — tap the ⓘ for what these numbers mean and what we measured.