Sat, Nov 21 · 7:30 PM ET
SMU at Notre Dame
Notre Dame favored by 17.5 · total 56.5
SMUMustangs
Away · ACC
+17.5
-105
+750
ML
Notre DameFighting Irish
Home · FBS Independents
-17.5
-115
-1200
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| SMU | Notre Dame | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 57% | 51% |
| Passing | 97% | 91% |
| Rushing | 1% | 12% |
| Receiving | 37% | 38% |
The read
- At 17.5 the line sits just past 17, so the games decided by exactly 17 fall on the underdog's side of this bet.
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 5.1 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
SMU
13-11 ATS · 18-6 SU
10-14 O/U · 5-7 away
Notre Dame
19-9 ATS · 24-4 SU
15-13 O/U · 9-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 17.5 — the 17-21 point band. In 639 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.1–54.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Notre Dame -12.4 versus the market's -17.5 — a 5.1-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
The number hasn't moved. The spread has held at -17.5 and the total at 56.5 across 46 checks between Aug 11 – Sep 6. Most college lines sit still until news moves them — 83% of the games we track haven't budged — so a still number is the normal state, not missing data.
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.