Sat, Oct 10 · 7:40 PM ET
Syracuse at Virginia
Virginia favored by 14 · total 49.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
SyracuseOrange
Away · ACC
+14
+440
ML
VirginiaCavaliers
Home · ACC
-14
-600
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Syracuse | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35% | 10% |
| Passing | 83% | 1% |
| Rushing | -19%* | 21% |
| Receiving | 20% | 9% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- 68% chance of rain at kickoff.
- The number sits exactly on 14, one of the margins college games land on most often — so a half-point move either way changes more results here than the same move anywhere else on the board.
- The spread has moved from -9.5 to -14 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 10, changing the result in 5.5% of historical games.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 4.6 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Syracuse
10-14 ATS · 12-12 SU
13-10-1 O/U · 6-4 away
Virginia
15-9 ATS · 15-9 SU
7-17 O/U · 7-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 14 — the 14-17 point band. In 708 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 52.8% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (49.1–56.5%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Virginia -9.4 versus the market's -14 — a 4.6-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-9.5 → -14-4.5
Total
50.5 → 49.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.