Sat, Oct 3 · 2:10 PM ET
Toledo at Ball State
Toledo favored by 20.5 · total 53.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
ToledoRockets
Away · Mid-American
-20.5
-1200
ML
Ball StateCardinals
Home · Mid-American
+20.5
+750
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Toledo | Ball State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 66% | 6% |
| Passing | 99% | 0% |
| Rushing | 26% | -104%* |
| Receiving | 58% | 32% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- At 20.5 the line sits just short of 21, so the games decided by exactly 21 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from 19.5 to 20.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 53.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 12.2 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Toledo
13-11 ATS · 14-10 SU
12-12 O/U · 5-7 away
Ball State
12-10 ATS · 6-16 SU
13-8-1 O/U · 7-2 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 20.5 — the 17-21 point band. In 639 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.1–54.9%) is taken into account.
- Total 53.5 — this game's spread sits in the 14-21 point band. In 1,186 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 47.0% of the time, so the other side has been the more frequent of the two — though still short of the 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Ball State +8.3 versus the market's +20.5 — a 12.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
19.5 → 20.5+1.0
Total
51.5 → 53.5+2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.