UAB at Illinois

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

Returning production

The read

• The spread has moved from -28.5 to -25.5 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 28, changing the result in 3.3% of historical games.
• A total of 54.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
• SP+ and the market differ by 3.9 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.

Team profile

How games at these numbers have gone

• Spread 25.5 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
• Total 54.5 — this game's spread sits in the 21-28 point band. In 688 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 50.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–54.2%) is taken into account.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.

SP+ team strength · 2026

SP+ implies Illinois -21.6 versus the market's -25.5 — a 3.9-point disagreement.

Context, not a pick — tap the ⓘ for what these numbers mean and what we measured.