Sat, Sep 12 · 4:00 PM ET
UC Davis at SMU
SMU favored by 32.5 · total 58.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
UC DavisAggies
Away · Big Sky
+32.5
+1600
ML
SMUMustangs
Home · ACC
-32.5
-4000
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| UC Davis | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | — | 57% |
| Passing | — | 97% |
| Rushing | — | 1% |
| Receiving | — | 37% |
The read
- The spread has moved from -24.5 to -32.5 since it opened, toward the home side. It crossed 28, changing the result in 7.5% of historical games.
- A total of 58.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
UC Davis
0-1 ATS · 0-1 SU
1-0 O/U
SMU
13-11 ATS · 18-6 SU
10-14 O/U · 7-3 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 32.5 — the 28-35 point band. In 425 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 46.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (41.9–51.3%) is taken into account.
- Total 58.5 — this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9–58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at −110.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-24.5 → -32.5-8.0
Total
58.5 → 58.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.