Sat, Sep 26 · 9:00 PM ET
UMass at Sacramento State
UMass favored by 5.5 · total 49.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
UMassMinutemen
Away · Mid-American
-5.5
-221
ML
Sacramento StateHornets
Home · Mid-American
+5.5
+164
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Massachusetts | Sacramento State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | -57%* | — |
| Passing | -37%* | — |
| Rushing | 221%* | — |
| Receiving | -11%* | — |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from 4.5 to 5.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 49.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 14.5 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Massachusetts
9-13-1 ATS · 2-21 SU
15-8 O/U · 5-6-1 away
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 5.5 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 49.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Sacramento State -9 versus the market's +5.5 — a 14.5-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
4.5 → 5.5+1.0
Total
48.5 → 49.5+1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.