Sat, Oct 10 · 7:35 PM ET
USC at Penn State
USC favored by 1.5 · total 54.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
USCTrojans
Away · Big Ten
-1.5
-115
ML
Penn StateNittany Lions
Home · Big Ten
+1.5
-105
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| USC | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 59% | 8% |
| Passing | 91% | 3% |
| Rushing | 78% | -2%* |
| Receiving | 27% | 15% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- The spread has moved from -1.5 to 1.5 since it opened, toward the away side. It crossed 1, changing the result in 3.6% of historical games.
- A total of 54.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.1 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
USC
11-13 ATS · 14-10 SU
12-12 O/U · 2-8 away
Penn State
13-15 ATS · 19-9 SU
15-13 O/U · 6-8 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 1.5 — the 0-3 point band. In 982 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.7% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.6–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 54.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Penn State -1.6 versus the market's +1.5 — a 3.1-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-1.5 → 1.5+3.0
Total
54.5 → 54.5unmoved
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.