Sat, Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Virginia at SMU
SMU favored by 9.5 · total 51.5
VirginiaCavaliers
Away · ACC
+9.5
-105
+270
ML
SMUMustangs
Home · ACC
-9.5
-115
-340
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Virginia | SMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10% | 57% |
| Passing | 1% | 97% |
| Rushing | 21% | 1% |
| Receiving | 9% | 37% |
Player props · 26 players
Passing yards
Rushing yards
Receiving yards
+1 more receiving yards ladders
Anytime TD
+19 more anytime td ladders
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Every rung and price on the full prop board. We publish no model on college props — these are the market's numbers.
The read
- Forecast winds around 15 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- At 9.5 the line sits just short of 10, so the games decided by exactly 10 fall on the favorite's side of this bet.
- The spread has moved from -8.5 to -9.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 51.5 sits right around the middle of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 4.2 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Virginia
15-9 ATS · 15-9 SU
7-17 O/U · 7-3 away
SMU
13-11 ATS · 18-6 SU
10-14 O/U · 7-3 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 9.5 — the 7-10 point band. In 1,074 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 51.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (48.2–54.2%) is taken into account.
- Total 51.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies SMU -5.3 versus the market's -9.5 — a 4.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-8.5 → -9.5-1.0
Total
52.5 → 51.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.