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Sat, Sep 12 ยท 3:30 PM ET

Wagner at James Madison

James Madison favored by 46.5 ยท total 56.5

Game has kicked off โ€” lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.

WagnerSeahawks

Away ยท NEC

+46.5

โ€”

ML

James MadisonDukes

Home ยท Sun Belt

-46.5

โ€”

ML

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead โ€” or as well โ€” and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

SpreadWagner +46.5โ€”
SpreadJames Madison -46.5โ€”
TotalOver 56.5โ€”
TotalUnder 56.5โ€”

Returning production

WagnerJames Madison
Overallโ€”8%
Passingโ€”9%
Rushingโ€”7%
Receivingโ€”9%

The read

  • The spread has moved from -45.5 to -46.5 since it opened, toward the home side.
  • A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result โ€” overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

WagnerpercentileJames Madison

With the ball

โ€”Efficiency (PPA)74
โ€”Success rate62
โ€”Explosiveness40
โ€”Points per trip80

Without it

โ€”Efficiency allowed78
โ€”Success rate allowed78
โ€”Havoc56
โ€”Stuff rate27

Last three seasons

Wagner

1-2 ATS ยท 0-3 SU

1-2 O/U ยท 1-2 away

James Madison

14-10 ATS ยท 19-5 SU

10-14 O/U ยท 6-5 home

A record, not a signal โ€” we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.

How games at these numbers have gone

  • Spread 46.5 โ€” the 35+ point band. In 449 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.1% of the time โ€” a coin flip once the 95% range (43.5โ€“52.7%) is taken into account.
  • Total 56.5 โ€” this game's spread sits in the 28+ point band. In 715 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 54.5% of the time (95% range 50.9โ€“58.2%), against a 52.38% break-even rate at โˆ’110.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick โ€” see every band.

Total56.5O โ€” ยท U โ€”

Line movement

Spread (home)

-45.5 โ†’ -46.5-1.0

Total

54.5 โ†’ 56.5+2.0

"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open โ€” DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.

Other games

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