Sat, Sep 26 · 12:00 PM ET
Wake Forest at Louisville
Louisville favored by 11.5 · total 57.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Wake ForestDemon Deacons
Away · ACC
+11.5
+380
ML
LouisvilleCardinals
Home · ACC
-11.5
-500
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Wake Forest | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14% | 35% |
| Passing | 23% | 0% |
| Rushing | 5% | 85% |
| Receiving | 13% | 18% |
The read
- The spread has moved from -12.5 to -11.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 57.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 3.7 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Wake Forest
11-11-1 ATS · 11-12 SU
12-10-1 O/U · 6-3-1 away
Louisville
10-13 ATS · 15-8 SU
13-10 O/U · 4-7 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 11.5 — the 10-14 point band. In 1,140 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.2% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (45.3–51.1%) is taken into account.
- Total 57.5 — this game's spread sits in the 7-14 point band. In 1,954 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 48.6% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.4–50.8%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Louisville -7.8 versus the market's -11.5 — a 3.7-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-12.5 → -11.5+1.0
Total
58.5 → 57.5-1.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.