Sat, Oct 10 · 12:10 PM ET
Wake Forest at NC State
Wake Forest favored by 4 · total 56.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
Wake ForestDemon Deacons
Away · ACC
-4
-180
ML
NC StateWolfpack
Home · ACC
+4
+150
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Wake Forest | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14% | 60% |
| Passing | 23% | 93% |
| Rushing | 5% | 102%* |
| Receiving | 13% | 26% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Forecast winds around 17 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
- 74% chance of rain at kickoff.
- The spread has moved from 3.5 to 4 since it opened, toward the away side.
- A total of 56.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 8.2 points — SP+ rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Wake Forest
11-11-1 ATS · 11-12 SU
12-10-1 O/U · 6-3-1 away
NC State
10-13-1 ATS · 12-12 SU
13-11 O/U · 5-6-1 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 4 — the 3-7 point band. In 2,054 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.9% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–51.0%) is taken into account.
- Total 56.5 — this game's spread sits in the 0-7 point band. In 2,739 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 49.0% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (47.2–50.9%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies NC State -4.2 versus the market's +4 — a 8.2-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
3.5 → 4+0.5
Total
60.5 → 56.5-4.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.