Sun, Sep 6 · 7:30 PM ET
Wisconsin at Notre Dame
Notre Dame favored by 21 · total 45.5
Game has kicked off — lines shown are the pre-kickoff close.
WisconsinBadgers
Away · Big Ten
+21
+1000
ML
Notre DameFighting Irish
Home · FBS Independents
-21
-1800
ML
Bet it or track it
Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.
Returning production
| Wisconsin | Notre Dame | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31% | 51% |
| Passing | -500%* | 91% |
| Rushing | 32% | 12% |
| Receiving | 34% | 38% |
* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.
The read
- Neutral site, so neither team gets home-field advantage — worth about 2.6 points in college football, more than most lines move all week.
- The number sits exactly on 21, one of the margins college games land on most often — so a half-point move either way changes more results here than the same move anywhere else on the board.
- The spread has moved from -20.5 to -21 since it opened, toward the home side.
- A total of 45.5 sits on the low side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.
- SP+ and the market differ by 5.6 points — the market rates the home side higher. Worth knowing, but not a signal: we backtested betting that disagreement and it went 49.8% against the spread, versus the 52.4% needed to break even.
Team profile
With the ball
Without it
Last three seasons
Wisconsin
8-13 ATS · 6-15 SU
6-15 O/U · 3-5 away
Notre Dame
19-9 ATS · 24-4 SU
15-13 O/U · 9-5 home
A record, not a signal — we measured team-level situational splits at 50% against the spread. Useful for knowing a team, not for picking one.
How games at these numbers have gone
- Spread 21 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
- Total 45.5 — this game's spread sits in the 21-28 point band. In 688 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 50.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–54.2%) is taken into account.
Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.
SP+ team strength · 2026
SP+ implies Notre Dame -15.4 versus the market's -21 — a 5.6-point disagreement.
Context, not a pick — tap the for what these numbers mean and what we measured.
Line movement
Spread (home)
-20.5 → -21-0.5
Total
47.5 → 45.5-2.0
"From" is the first price we recorded, not necessarily the market open — DraftKings publishes no opening number, so we only claim what we saw.
Odds via DraftKings, refreshed every 30 minutes; movement is measured from our own stored snapshots. Confirm the price at your book. 21+.