Youngstown State at Kentucky

Bet it or track it

Tap a price to send it to your DraftKings betslip. Tail it instead — or as well — and it gets graded into My Record once the game is final. Pushes are settled as pushes, which matters here: a 3 or a 7 is the most common margin in college football.

Returning production

* Outside 0–100% on purpose — production is PPA-weighted, so a departing player who cost his team yards pushes the share above 100 and a returning group with negative combined output shows below zero.

The read

• Forecast winds around 23 mph. Across 2,065 outdoor games, windy ones scored about 4 points fewer than calm ones — but the market moves its total to match, and backing the under in wind lost money at every threshold we tested. Conditions, not an edge.
• The spread has moved from -23.5 to -22.5 since it opened, toward the away side.
• A total of 61.5 sits on the high side of real college football scores (the median FBS game lands on 54). That places the number; it does not predict the result — overs land almost exactly 50% against closing totals.

Team profile

How games at these numbers have gone

• Spread 22.5 — the 21-28 point band. In 805 archived games at this number, the favorite covered 48.3% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (44.9–51.8%) is taken into account.
• Total 61.5 — this game's spread sits in the 21-28 point band. In 688 archived games with a spread this size, the over hit 50.4% of the time — a coin flip once the 95% range (46.7–54.2%) is taken into account.

Measured on our archive of FBS games with a closing line and a final score. Context, not a pick — see every band.