BOBBY'SSPORTS ANALYTICS
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NBA

Wed, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM ET

MIA logoMIAMiami Heat0-3 · 2026-27
@
ATL logoATLAtlanta Hawks2-1 · 2026-27

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks preview

Model win prob.ATL 67%

Model: our NBA season simulator (50,000 simulated seasons, run nightly). Not betting odds.

Numbers to know

  • 1MIA has won 4 of the last 5 meetings (since the 2024-25 season, incl. playoffs).
  • 2MIA has lost its last 4 games (2026-27 & 2025-26, incl. playoffs).
  • 3ATL has lost its last 3 home games (2026-27 & 2025-26, incl. playoffs).
MIA logo

MIA recent form

Last 5 games played (2026-27 & 2025-26, incl. playoffs)

  • L10/24@ CHA logo CHA110–115
  • L10/23vs DET logo DET111–128
  • L10/21vs MIN logo MIN106–131
  • L4/14@ CHA logo CHA126–127Play-in
  • W4/12vs ATL logo ATL143–117
ATL logo

ATL recent form

Last 5 games played (2026-27 & 2025-26, incl. playoffs)

  • L10/24vs HOU logo HOU114–121
  • W10/23@ CHA logo CHA128–81
  • W10/21@ ORL logo ORL132–125
  • L4/30vs NYK logo NYK89–140Playoffs
  • L4/28@ NYK logo NYK97–126Playoffs

Key players

Giannis Antetokounmpo

MIA

Giannis Antetokounmpo

27.6 PTS · 9.8 REB · 5.4 AST per game

2025-26 regular season · 36 games (with MIL)

Jalen Johnson

ATL

Jalen Johnson

22.5 PTS · 10.3 REB · 7.9 AST per game

2025-26 regular season · 72 games

NBA: the top scorer per game on the current roster over the latest regular season in our logs (2025-26; min. 20 games).

Head to head

MIA 4 – 1 ATL · last 5

Meetings since the 2024-25 season, incl. playoffs.

  • 4/12/26ATL 117 @ MIA 143
  • 2/20/26MIA 128 @ ATL 97
  • 2/3/26ATL 127 @ MIA 115
  • 12/26/25MIA 126 @ ATL 111
  • 4/18/25MIA 123 @ ATL 114Play-in

All numbers come from our own schedule and game-log tables; each section states its window. Results our logs can't settle reliably (e.g. a tied run or goal sum) show as “–” and are left out of streaks. Not betting advice.