CFB
Where they rank
Team-advanced percentile vs. the FBS field · descriptive only, not a prediction of Saturday.
North Carolina
Offensive efficiency (PPA)35th pct.
Offensive success rate63th pct.
Explosiveness7th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)70th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed33th pct.
Havoc rate12th pct.
Duke
Offensive efficiency (PPA)76th pct.
Offensive success rate47th pct.
Explosiveness75th pct.
Defensive efficiency (PPA)55th pct.
Defensive success rate allowed54th pct.
Havoc rate49th pct.
North Carolina · Returning production
Overall (PPA)27.8%
Passing9.5%
Rushing53.6%
Receiving32.8%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 7-15-1 · O/U 10-13 · avg. margin -3.4
Duke · Returning production
Overall (PPA)17.1%
Passing4.1%
Rushing43.2%
Receiving20.3%
Against the spread, last 3 seasons
ATS 14-8-2 · O/U 14-10 · avg. margin +3.0
Head-to-head
Last 6 meetings2026North Carolina 24–20 Duke
2025Duke 32–25 North Carolina
2024North Carolina 20–21 Duke
2023Duke 45–47 North Carolina
2022North Carolina 38–35 Duke
2021Duke 7–38 North Carolina
Venue & conditions
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC
72°F · 16.7 mph wind · 92% precip. chance