Research

We publish what we tested

Popular sports ideas — hot hands, short weeks, home field — tested against our own game logs. We publish every result, including the ones that found nothing.

Live studies

Recomputed from our game logs · every player measured against their own baseline

MLBNo hot hand

Is the hot hand real?

When a hitter is on a hitting streak, is he more likely to get a hit the next day than he normally would be?

−2.8 pp

8+ game streaks vs the hitter's own rate

62.4%

vs 61.5%

After 0-fer

62.7%

vs 62.7%

1-2 streak

63.1%

vs 64.2%

3-4 streak

63.8%

vs 65.4%

5-7 streak

64.6%

vs 67.4%

8+ streak

Actual hit rateExpected from own season rateaxis starts at 54.8%

Hitters riding 8+ game streaks got a hit in 64.6% of their next games — which sounds hot, until you compare each one to his own season rate: they were expected to hit in 67.4%. The streak adds nothing (−2.8 pp, z = -1.9). The raw number is high because good hitters are the ones who build streaks.

How we measured it · 39,804 games · 432 hitters · 2026▾

Every 2026 start (3+ PA) by hitters with 30+ such games. For each game we record the streak he entered it on, and his expected hit rate = his season hit-game rate with that game left out. Streaks in a finite season slightly favor 'cold' results even with no real effect (Miller & Sanjurjo, 2018), so small negative gaps are expected by chance.

MLBReal, but small

How much is home field worth to hitters?

Do hitters actually hit better at home, and by how much?

+.007

home batting average edge

HomeAway

Batting avg.247.240

HR per 600 PA18.517.9

Strikeout rate21.7%22.8%

Walk rate8.9%8.5%

League-wide, hitters bat .247 at home and .240 on the road (z = 3.1), strike out less (21.7% vs 22.8%) and walk more. Over 600 plate appearances that's about 0.5 extra home runs — real, but a rounding error next to who the hitter is.

How we measured it · 184,906 plate appearances · 2026▾

Every 2026 plate appearance in our game logs, split by whether the hitter's team was home.

NFLGarbage time is a myth

Fantasy points follow the scoreboard

How much does a player's fantasy output move with the final score — and is 'garbage time' real?

5.3 pts

QB swing, blowout win vs blowout loss

Win by 8+Lose by 8+

QB+1.75−3.51

RB+1.86−1.93

WR+0.37−1.00

TE±0.00−0.65

Against their own averages, quarterbacks score +1.7 PPR in wins by 8+ and −3.5 in losses by 8+. The popular idea that receivers pile up points in blowout losses doesn't hold: WRs score −1.00 in those games (z = -9.8). Read this as association, not cause — a quiet offense is often WHY a team loses big.

How we measured it · 36,316 player-games▾

Every regular-season game for QB/RB/WR/TE averaging 5+ PPR, joined to the final score (nfl_schedule; moved franchises mapped). Values are PPR points relative to the player's own season average.

NFLTargets win

Targets or yards: which predicts next week?

If you only know one number from last week, is a receiver's target count or his yardage more useful?

0.57 vs 0.41

week-to-week correlation, targets vs yards

0.57

Targets

0.41

Receiving yards

Correlation with the same stat next weekaxis starts at 0.27

A receiver's targets correlate 0.57 with his targets the next week; yards only 0.41. Targets measure his role, which is stable; yards add the noise of how each catch plays out. For judging a receiver on one week, look at volume, not production.

How we measured it · 31,107 week pairs▾

Consecutive regular-season games for every WR/TE with 8+ games in a season, 2015–2025. Pearson correlation of this week's value with next week's.

NFLNo carryover

Is a receiver ever 'hot'?

After a receiver beats his own yardage average, is he more likely to do it again the next week?

+0.2 pp

next-week edge after a big week

42.5%

After above-avg week

42.3%

After below-avg week

Next week above own averageaxis starts at 40.2%

After a week above his own receiving average, a WR/TE topped it again 42.5% of the time; after a week below it, 42.3% (z = 0.3). Last week's yardage tells you nothing about this week beyond who the player already is.

How we measured it · 15,409 week pairs · 2015–2025▾

Every WR/TE regular-season game 2015–2025; average is the player's own for that season (15+ games). Consecutive games only.

NFLShort weeks don't hurt

Do short weeks hurt fantasy players?

On a Thursday game after a Sunday, do players produce less than they normally would? And what about coming off a bye?

+0.29 PPR

on short weeks vs own average

vs own avgGames

Short week (≤5 days)+0.292,324

Normal (6–8 days)+0.0226,951

After bye (9+ days)−0.274,780

On short weeks (5 or fewer days since the last game), players scored +0.29 PPR points against their own average (z = 2.0); coming off a bye or other long break, −0.27 (z = -2.8). Both effects are small — a fraction of a point — and the popular idea that Thursday games crush fantasy output doesn't show up.

How we measured it · 34,055 player-games▾

QB/RB/WR/TE averaging 5+ PPR, regular seasons 2015–2025. Rest = days since the team's previous game (nfl_schedule). Each game is scored against the player's own season average, then adjusted for that week's league-wide average so early-season vs late-season scoring can't masquerade as a rest effect.

NBATeams lose more

NBA back-to-backs: teams feel it, scorers don't

Do teams lose more on the second night of a back-to-back — and do their players score less?

46.3%

team win rate on back-to-backs (vs 50.9% rested)

Back-to-backRested

Team win rate46.3%50.9%

Player pts vs own avg+0.11−0.01

Games9024,000

Teams won 46.3% of back-to-back second nights and 50.9% otherwise (z = -2.5). But players who suited up scored +0.11 points vs their own average (z = 1.4) — no drop. The likely reason is load management: the most tired players sit, so they never appear in the back-to-back sample at all.

How we measured it · 36,382 player-games · 4,902 team-games▾

NBA 2024-25 and 2025-26 and 2026-27 regular seasons. Back-to-back = team played the previous day (from each team's game dates). Player rows: 15+ minutes, players with 20+ such games, scored against their own season average.

WNBAReal home edge

Home court in the WNBA

How often does the home team win, and by how many points?

54.9%

home team win rate

HomeAway

Win rate54.9%45.1%

Points per game85.683.5

Home teams won 338 of 616 games (54.9%, z = 2.4) and outscored visitors 85.6 to 83.5 per game — about 2.2 points.

How we measured it · 616 games▾

Every regular-season game in our WNBA logs (playoffs excluded — higher seeds host more); final scores are the sum of each team's player points (every player who played is logged).

WNBASmall but real

Does a big scoring night carry over?

After a player scores above her own average, is her next game more likely to be above average too?

+2.4 pp

next-game edge after an above-average night

47.2%

After above-avg game

44.8%

After below-avg game

Next game above own averageaxis starts at 40.9%

After an above-average scoring night, players topped their average again 47.2% of the time; after a below-average night, 44.8% (z = 2.3). A small edge — most likely role and minutes changes (an injury ahead of her, a new starting spot) rather than a 'hot hand'.

How we measured it · 9,593 game pairs▾

Games with 10+ minutes; each player's average is her own for that season (15+ such games). Consecutive games only.

WNBANo effect

Do back-to-backs tire scorers out?

When a team plays on consecutive days, do its players score less than they usually do?

+0.2 pts

on the 2nd night vs her own average

vs own avgGames

Back-to-back+0.24422

1 day rest−0.054,874

2+ days rest+0.034,378

On the second night of a back-to-back, players scored +0.24 points relative to their own season average (z = 0.9), versus −0.05 with one day off and +0.03 with two or more. Fatigue doesn't show up in the scoring column.

How we measured it · 9,674 player-games▾

Rest = days since the team's previous game (from every team's game dates in our logs). Each game is scored against that player's own season average (10+ minutes, 15+ such games).

NFLReal, worth ~2 points

How many points is home field worth?

Do home teams actually outscore visitors, and by how much?

+1.69

home scoring margin, points per game

HomeAway

Points per game23.722.0

Margin+1.69—

Across every regular-season game with a final score, home teams have scored 23.7 points a game against 22.0 for visitors — a margin of +1.69 (z = 6.5). That's real and consistent, but it's a fraction of a field goal, not a talent gap.

How we measured it · 2,989 games▾

Every NFL regular-season game with a final score in nfl_schedule (2015–present). Margin is the paired difference (home minus away) per game.

MLBNo September fade

Does hitting fade in September?

As a long season wears on, do hitters get worse in the final month compared to their own year?

−0.4 pp

September hit-rate vs own season average

47.0%

Mar

50.5%

Apr

49.5%

May

51.5%

Jun

50.0%

Jul

49.9%

Aug

49.6%

Sep

43.7%

Oct

Hit-rate vs own season average (shifted to positive for display)axis starts at 35.5%

Comparing each qualified hitter's hit-rate in every month to his own season rate, September comes in at −0.4 points (z = -0.6) across 4,599 games. Mar: −3.0, Apr: +0.5, May: −0.5, Jun: +1.5, Jul: ±0.0, Aug: −0.1, Sep: −0.4, Oct: −6.3. None of the months stand out as a real, sustained fade — the swings are the size random monthly noise produces.

How we measured it · 33,160 player-games · 250 hitters▾

Batters with 300+ AB and 40+ games in the 2026 season (qualified hitters). Each game's hit/no-hit result is compared to that player's own season hit-rate; bucketed by calendar month.

MLBA small dip

Getaway-day games: worse hitting?

When a home team plays a day game right after a night game, do its hitters perform worse?

.238

batting average, day game after a night game

Day-after-nightOther home games

Batting avg.238.253

At-bats6,92422,585

Home hitters batted .238 in games that immediately followed a night game at the same park, versus .253 in every other home game with a recorded first pitch (z = -2.5). A modest dip — consistent with a short-rest effect, though the gap is small next to normal day-to-day variance.

How we measured it · 29,509 at-bats · 1,088 games with known first pitch▾

First-pitch times (mlb_game_weather) converted to each ballpark's local time using its standard-season UTC offset; a game is 'day' if local first pitch is before 5pm. Home-team hitters only, compared across every home game we have a first-pitch time for. Approximate — ignores park roofs and rare early-April/late-Sept clock-change edge cases.

CFBRankings predict blowouts

How much does a ranking matter?

When an AP-ranked team plays an unranked FBS opponent, how much do they win by?

+22.5

average margin for the ranked team

Ranked teamUnranked opp.

Win rate87.2%12.8%

Avg margin+22.5—

Ranked teams beat unranked FBS opponents by 22.5 points on average this season (z = 12.8) and won 87.2% of those games outright. A spot in the AP poll is a real, large signal against an unranked opponent — it isn't just name recognition.

How we measured it · 133 games▾

Every 2026 FBS game where exactly one side carried an AP Top 25 rank at kickoff (cfb_scores, state='post' only). Margin is the ranked team's score minus the unranked team's.

Market backtests

Already live · deepest example today

What We've Measured — College Football

Four angles we tested and killed on our own archive of FBS results and closing lines — SP+ ratings vs the spread (49.8% ATS on 1,589 games), wind, rain and altitude on totals. Published with the same numbers whether they worked or not.

Read the full page →

Other written studies

College Football — SP+, wind, rain, altitude

The angles above, in full: methodology, sample sizes, and the ones that didn't beat the closing line.

NFL — Numbers

Team and player trends pulled from the same gamelog archive our NFL picks are graded against.

WNBA — Numbers

Team and player trends from the WNBA box-score archive, same treatment.

Our track record

MLB — Results

Every MLB pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

NFL — Results

Every NFL pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

WNBA — Results

Every WNBA pick we've published, graded win or loss, in full.

MLB — NRFI record

Every no-run-first-inning pick, graded, against the league base rate.

MLB — Closing line value

Whether the line moved our way after we made the pick — the standard sportsbooks themselves use to judge a bettor.

Descriptive market statistics, computed daily

64%

of MLB props priced +200 or longer

Of 1,241,776 graded props this season, 790,940 closed at +200 or longer. Staked flat at one unit each, that group returned -29.9%. This describes what the shelf has done, not a strategy.

mlb · recomputed daily from our odds archive

CFB is our deepest write-up because that market has been backtested most extensively — but it's not the only one. NFL and WNBA have their own published number studies above, and our full pick history is public too. Same standard everywhere: publish it whether it worked or not.