NFL Results
Every model pick, snapshotted before kickoff and graded against the box score after. Units are 1u flat at the price we published. Wins and losses are both here.
How picks are chosen changed on Sep 23. Weeks 1–2 used recent hit rates; they lost to the market, and this record keeps them. From Week 3 a pick is a DraftKings price that beats Pinnacle's no-vig price — the week table shows each method's results separately.
Record
839-886
Win rate
48.6%
Break-even
53.0%
at the prices published
Units
−156.8u
1,725 picks
By week
| Week | Picks | Record | Win % | Break-even | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 | 2 | 2-0 | 100.0% | 41.8% | +2.8u |
| Week 5 | 38 | 15-23 | 39.5% | 45.7% | −5.1u |
| Week 4 | 30 | 17-13 | 56.7% | 42.5% | +10.9u |
| Week 3 | 21 | 8-13 | 38.1% | 46.3% | −3.2u |
| Week 2 | 809 | 404-405 | 49.9% | 53.3% | −68.1u |
| Week 1 | 825 | 393-432 | 47.6% | 53.6% | −94.1u |
Latest graded · Thu, Oct 15 & Mon, Oct 12
| Player | Pick | Price | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Holani | Rush Attempts Over 4.5 | +118 | 5 | win |
| Rashid Shaheed | Receptions Over 2.5 | +165 | 5 | win |
| Dalton Kincaid | Receptions Over 4.5 | +107 | 1 | loss |
| Dalton Kincaid | Anytime TD Over 0.5 | +195 | 0 | loss |
| Davante Adams | Receptions Over 4.5 | +124 | 5 | win |
| Keon Coleman | Anytime TD Over 0.5 | +275 | 1 | win |