Bobby'sSports Analytics

NFL

Is that boost any good?

A profit boost is applied to a price that already carries the book's margin, so part of it is spent buying back the vig before any of it is edge. On a standard −110 prop that costs about 10% — a boost smaller than that leaves you behind the market's own fair number.

DraftKings 30% boost — use it here

How →

Cameron Ward

Passing TDs Over 1.5

+208 → +270+14%DK

Tyler Huntley

Passing TDs Over 1.5

+187 → +243+13%DK

Omarion Hampton

Receptions Under 0.5

+183 → +238+13%DK

Ted Hurst

Receptions Over 1.5

+162 → +211+12%DK

The short answer. It depends far more on the market than on the boost. An ordinary two-sided prop — receiving yards, receptions — needs roughly 8–20%, so any normal 25% or 50% token clears it comfortably.

Anytime touchdown is different. It needs 29% on average and up to 137%, because the touchdown field carries about 27% margin against roughly 5% on a standard prop. A 50% boost on an anytime scorer is often not enough — and that is the market books boost most.

Enter the boost you have been offered. Every prop below shows the boost it would need to reach fair value, measured by de-vigging the two prices DraftKings posts on it. How the fair price is derived →

Token offers today

A percentage token is almost all DraftKings and FanDuel ever hand out, and it is the case this page answers best — we already know what every prop on the board requires.

FanDuel

50% MLB Postseason Profit Boost

Clears 1,494 of 1,515 priced NFL props

FanDuel

50% MLB Postseason Profit Boost

Clears 1,494 of 1,515 priced NFL props

DraftKings

30% MLB SGP Boost for MIL/LAD

Clears 1,383 of 1,515 priced NFL props

DraftKings

30% NFL SGP Boost for SEA/DEN

Clears 1,383 of 1,515 priced NFL props

bet365

50% Champions League SGP Boost

Clears 1,494 of 1,515 priced NFL props

bet365

30% MLB SGP Boost

Clears 1,383 of 1,515 priced NFL props

BetMGM

Pro Football SGP Boost Token

NFL

BetMGM

Pro Football SGP Boost Token

NFL

Caesars

Play Squad Builder & Win $50k in Bonus Bets

NFL

Caesars

Play Squad Builder & Win $50k in Bonus Bets

NFL

Boosts on offer right now

Fixed-odds boosts currently posted, ranked by how far each moves your break-even. That figure is arithmetic on the book's own two prices and assumes nothing: a +3pp shift means the bet needs to land three points less often than before to be worth the same. It is not a claim that the bet is good — for a three-leg parlay nobody can de-vig, only the price improved.

theScore

J. Chourio to Record a Hit & MIL to Win

MLB · +155 → +220

+7.97pp
theScore

C. McDavid to Record 2+ Pts & EDM to Win

NHL · +130 → +180

+7.76pp
theScore

Any Player to Score 40+ Pts on NBA Opening Day (Oct 20)

NBA · +135 → +185

+7.47pp
theScore

Any 2 of A. Ovechkin, C. Caufield & J. Robertson to Score a Goal

NHL · +170 → +220

+5.79pp
theScore

F. Freeman or W. Contreras to Hit a Home Run

MLB · +300 → +400

+5.00pp
Caesars

JSN 8+ Rec & Score a TD

NFL · +235 → +280

+3.53pp
Caesars

S. Darnold & B. Nix 200+ Pass Yds Each

NFL · +155 → +180

+3.50pp
theScore

JSN to Record 10+ Rec Yds in Q1

NFL · +290 → +350

+3.42pp
BetMGM

Yes Run First Inning (YRFI) in MIL/LAD

MLB · +110 → +125

+3.17pp
Caesars

B. Turang & M. Betts 2+ H+R+RBI

MLB · +300 → +350

+2.78pp
bet365

DOR to Win & Record Most CKs, SOT vs BODO

Soccer · +460 → +550

+2.47pp
BetMGM

No Run First Inning (NRFI) of MIL/LAD

MLB · -138 → -125

+2.43pp
BetMGM

Both Teams to Score in Q1 of SEA/DEN

NFL · +150 → +165

+2.26pp
bet365

SEA to Win & JSN 100+ Rec Yds, 1+ TD

NFL · +390 → +450

+2.23pp
Caesars

J. Waddle 50+ Rec Yds & Score a TD

NFL · +400 → +450

+1.82pp
Caesars

J. Chourio & F. Freeman 2+ Total Bases Each

MLB · +425 → +475

+1.66pp
Caesars

LAD to Score 5+ Runs & S. Ohtani 2+ Hits

MLB · +450 → +500

+1.52pp
bet365

RMA to Win, Most CKs, SOT & ROMA Most Cards

Soccer · +750 → +850

+1.24pp
bet365

JSN, JK Dobbins & C. Sutton 1+ TD Each

NFL · +1700 → +1800

+0.29pp
%

A 25% profit boost clears 1,298 of 1,515 priced props (86%). It is above the 10% a standard −110 prop costs.

Boost needed to reach fair value · lowest first

Oronde Gadsden II

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs KC

+293-39.3%

Rico Dowdle

Rush Attempts Over 7.5 · vs TB

+173-19.7%

Tyler Warren

Receptions Over 5.5 · vs TEN

+132-12.1%

Keaton Mitchell

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs KC

+133-11.1%

Blake Corum

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs ARI

+167-10.7%

Mark Andrews

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs CLE

+100-10.7%

Kyren Williams

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs ARI

+172-10.0%

Kirk Cousins

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs BUF

+132-9.4%

Bhayshul Tuten

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs HOU

-142-7.5%

Cade Otton

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs PIT

+120-5.6%

Jalon Daniels

Completions Over 17.5 · vs PIT

-116-4.5%

Kendrick Bourne

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs LA

+126-4.3%

Emmett Johnson

Rushing Yards Over 14.5 · vs LAC

-106-4.2%

Daniel Jones

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs TEN

-112-3.8%

Laquon Treadwell

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs TEN

+145-3.6%

Drake Maye

Rush Attempts Over 5.5 · vs NYJ

-108-3.5%

Omarion Hampton

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs KC

+181-3.4%

Trevor Lawrence

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs HOU

+147-3.0%

Javonte Williams

Receiving Yards Over 14.5 · vs GB

+103-2.9%

Deshaun Watson

Completions Under 19.5 · vs BAL

-115-2.8%

Michael Wilson

Receptions Over 5.5 · vs LA

+114-2.6%

Darnell Washington

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs TB

+101-2.6%

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs JAX

+119-2.5%

Josh Allen

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs LV

-119-2.4%

C.J. Stroud

Rush Attempts Under 3.5 · vs JAX

-147-2.3%

Josh Downs

Receiving Yards Over 48.5 · vs TEN

-113-1.8%

Bhayshul Tuten

Rush Attempts Over 16.5 · vs HOU

-106-1.5%

Matthew Golden

Receiving Yards Over 65.5 · vs DAL

-110-1.4%

Josh Downs

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs TEN

-124-1.3%

Kenneth Walker III

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs LAC

-149-0.9%

Jalen Coker

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs PHI

+119-0.9%

Jalen Brooks

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs LA

+118-0.8%

Tanner McKee

Passing TDs Under 0.5 · vs CAR

+184-0.8%

Tre Tucker

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs BUF

-105-0.8%

Brenton Strange

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs HOU

-139-0.6%

Bucky Irving

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs PIT

+145-0.6%

Dalton Kincaid

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs LV

+122-0.4%

Christian Watson

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs DAL

+112-0.1%

Matthew Stafford

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs ARI

-133-0.0%

Bijan Robinson

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs CHI

-1050.0%

Jameis Winston

Completions Over 19.5 · vs NO

-1120.1%

Jonathan Taylor

Rush Attempts Over 19.5 · vs TEN

-1120.1%

Xavier Worthy

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs LAC

+1000.8%

George Kittle

Receptions Under 5.5 · vs WAS

-1170.8%

Patrick Mahomes

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs LAC

-1050.8%

Brock Purdy

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs WAS

+1150.9%

Aaron Rodgers

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs TB

+1381.3%

Darren Waller

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs PHI

+1571.4%

Kayshon Boutte

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs JAX

+1441.4%

Brock Bowers

Receiving Yards Over 79.5 · vs BUF

-1171.6%

MarShawn Lloyd

Rush Attempts Under 11.5 · vs DAL

-1061.8%

Deshaun Watson

Passing TDs Over 1.5 · vs BAL

+1521.8%

Trey McBride

Receptions Over 7.5 · vs LA

+1181.8%

Keenan Allen

Receiving Yards Over 43.5 · vs TEN

-1141.9%

Tyler Shough

Rushing Yards Under 11.5 · vs NYG

-1112.0%

Harold Fannin Jr.

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs BAL

+1222.2%

Josh Allen

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs LV

+1082.5%

Brian Thomas Jr.

Receiving Yards Over 17.5 · vs HOU

-1122.9%

Matthew Stafford

Passing TDs Over 2.5 · vs ARI

+1072.9%

C.J. Stroud

Completions Over 22.5 · vs JAX

-1133.0%

Aaron Rodgers

Passing Yards Over 229.5 · vs TB

-1033.0%

Jacoby Brissett

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs LA

+1333.1%

Kalif Raymond

Receiving Yards Over 24.5 · vs ATL

-1223.1%

Emeka Egbuka

Receptions Under 3.5 · vs PIT

+1083.6%

Justice Hill

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs CLE

+1053.7%

CeeDee Lamb

Receiving Yards Over 80.5 · vs GB

-1133.8%

Drake London

Receptions Under 6.5 · vs CHI

-1373.9%

Patrick Mahomes

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs LAC

-1244.0%

MarShawn Lloyd

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs DAL

-1704.0%

Brock Purdy

Passing TDs Under 2.5 · vs WAS

-1694.2%

Mike Evans

Receptions Under 5.5 · vs WAS

-1174.5%

Justin Herbert

Completions Under 18.5 · vs KC

-1174.5%

Tetairoa McMillan

Receptions Under 5.5 · vs PHI

-1554.5%

Omarion Hampton

Rushing Yards Under 31.5 · vs KC

-1084.6%

Elic Ayomanor

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs IND

-1384.6%

Matthew Stafford

Completions Under 23.5 · vs ARI

-1094.7%

Caleb Williams

Rush Attempts Under 4.5 · vs ATL

+1134.7%

Tyler Shough

Completions Over 23.5 · vs NYG

+1164.7%

Justin Herbert

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs KC

+1194.7%

Carnell Tate

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs IND

-1154.8%

Bijan Robinson

Rush Attempts Under 18.5 · vs CHI

-1104.8%

Kenneth Walker III

Rush Attempts Over 19.5 · vs LAC

-1044.8%

Bryce Young

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs PHI

-1055.0%

DK Metcalf

Receptions Over 4.5 · vs TB

+1375.0%

Trevor Lawrence

Rush Attempts Under 3.5 · vs HOU

-1165.3%

Kyren Williams

Rushing Yards Over 69.5 · vs ARI

-1085.4%

Braelon Allen

Rush Attempts Over 17.5 · vs NE

+1145.4%

Bhayshul Tuten

Rushing Yards Over 63.5 · vs HOU

-1135.5%

Ty Johnson

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs LV

+1635.6%

Josh Allen

Completions Under 20.5 · vs LV

-1015.6%

Jahan Dotson

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs CHI

+1305.6%

Trevor Lawrence

Interceptions Under 0.5 · vs HOU

+1095.6%

Christian McCaffrey

Rush Attempts Under 14.5 · vs WAS

-1145.6%

Woody Marks

Receptions Under 2.5 · vs JAX

+1055.7%

Bucky Irving

Rush Attempts Under 15.5 · vs PIT

-1125.8%

Colby Parkinson

Receptions Under 1.5 · vs ARI

-1125.8%

Bryce Young

Completions Under 20.5 · vs PHI

+1005.8%

Jayden Daniels

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs SF

+1325.9%

Jalen Royals

Receptions Under 2.5 · vs LAC

-1505.9%

Jakobi Meyers

Receptions Over 3.5 · vs HOU

+1325.9%

Drake Maye

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs NYJ

+1266.0%

Seth McGowan

Rushing Yards Under 14.5 · vs TEN

-1066.0%

Jameis Winston

Rushing Yards Under 4.5 · vs NO

-1066.0%

Tyler Goodson

Rushing Yards Over 9.5 · vs GB

-1066.0%

Tony Pollard

Rush Attempts Under 14.5 · vs IND

-1066.0%

Jalon Daniels

Passing TDs Under 0.5 · vs PIT

+1756.1%

Josh Allen

Rush Attempts Over 7.5 · vs LV

+1136.3%

Isaiah Likely

Receptions Over 5.5 · vs NO

+1136.3%

Brock Purdy

Completions Under 21.5 · vs WAS

-1246.5%

Darnell Mooney

Receptions Over 1.5 · vs NO

-1286.5%

Rome Odunze

Receptions Over 2.5 · vs ATL

-1676.6%

Devaughn Vele

Receptions Under 4.5 · vs NYG

-1426.6%

Daniel Jones

Interceptions Over 0.5 · vs TEN

+1316.7%

DK Metcalf

Receiving Yards Over 51.5 · vs TB

-1126.7%

Xavier Hutchinson

Receiving Yards Over 14.5 · vs JAX

-1126.7%

Kendre Miller

Rush Attempts Under 9.5 · vs NYG

-1136.8%

Caleb Williams

Passing TDs Under 1.5 · vs ATL

+1256.8%

Derrick Henry

Receiving Yards Under 7.5 · vs CLE

-1066.9%

Jonathan Taylor

Receptions Under 2.5 · vs TEN

+1016.9%

Daniel Jones

Rushing Yards Under 6.5 · vs TEN

-1077.0%

Showing 120 of 400.

3,382 further props carry only one posted side and cannot be de-vigged, so they are not listed. Anytime touchdown is the biggest of them.

What this does not tell you

  • It is not a prediction. Clearing the threshold means the boosted price beats the market's own fair estimate. It does not mean the player will do the thing.
  • Anytime TD is de-vigged differently. It has no opposing price, so instead of pairing two sides we normalise the whole field: DraftKings prices every plausible scorer, and those prices are scaled so they sum to the number of scorers a game like this actually produces — measured at 4.07 on average across 1,845 games, rising about one per ten points of total. Rows using it are tagged TD field.
  • That method flatters longshots. Scaling the field proportionally is known to under-correct long prices, so for a +900 anytime scorer the figure shown is a floor — the true requirement is higher, not lower.
  • 3,382 props still have no fair price. The 2+ and 3+ touchdown ladders and anything else posted on one side only. Their fields sum to a different quantity that would need its own measurement, and guessing it would be worse than leaving them out.
  • One book. The fair price comes from DraftKings' own two sides, not a multi-book consensus. It measures the boost against that book's margin, not against the sharpest number in the market.