NFL
Closing Line Report
Every model pick, priced against DraftKings' last number before kickoff.
What this measures. The difference between the implied probability we posted a pick at and the implied probability of the final pre-kickoff price, on the same side of the same market. Positive means we got the better number. It is a measure of price, not of profit — beating the close by a point and still losing the bet are perfectly compatible.
The close here is DraftKings' own final quote, taken from our half-hourly snapshot of the board — not a multi-book consensus, because no multi-book feed carries NFL player props. It answers whether we beat the book you are actually pricing against.
Picks measured
1,855
Average CLV
+0.34pp
Beat the close
44%
| Player | Prop | We posted | Closed | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba HubbardWk 3 | Rush Attempts Over 17.5 | +104 | +322 | -25.32pp |
| David MontgomeryWk 5 | Rush Attempts Over 15.5 | +123 | +374 | -23.75pp |
| George HolaniWk 5 | Rushing Yards Over 19.5 | +108 | -252 | +23.51pp |
| Demario DouglasWk 3 | Receptions Under 2.5 | +136 | -173 | +21.00pp |
| Michael WilsonWk 6 | Receptions Over 5.5 | +108 | -220 | +20.67pp |
| Demario DouglasWk 3 | Receptions Under 2.5 | +131 | -173 | +20.08pp |
| Alvin KamaraWk 2 | Rushing Yards Over 24.5 | +245 | +108 | +19.09pp |
| Javonte WilliamsWk 3 | Rushing Yards Over 49.5 | -176 | -472 | +18.75pp |
| Alvin KamaraWk 2 | Rushing Yards Over 19.5 | +144 | -146 | +18.37pp |
| Daniel JonesWk 6 | Passing TDs Under 1.5 | -112 | -244 | +18.10pp |
| Alvin KamaraWk 2 | Rush + Rec Yards Over 39.5 | +203 | -103 | +17.74pp |
| Justin HerbertWk 5 | Rush Attempts Over 5.5 | +119 | +253 | -17.33pp |
| Darren WallerWk 6 | Receptions Over 3.5 | +168 | -118 | +16.82pp |
| Alec PierceWk 1 | Receptions Over 3.5 | +141 | +298 | -16.37pp |
| Daniel JonesWk 4 | Passing TDs Under 1.5 | -108 | -214 | +16.23pp |
| Alvin KamaraWk 2 | Rush + Rec Yards Over 49.5 | +411 | +183 | +15.77pp |
| Malik WillisWk 4 | Passing TDs Under 0.5 | -108 | +176 | -15.69pp |
| Alvin KamaraWk 2 | Rushing Yards Over 14.5 | -127 | -248 | +15.32pp |
| Alec PierceWk 1 | Receiving Yards Over 49.5 | +118 | +227 | -15.29pp |
| Alec PierceWk 1 | Receiving Yards Over 39.5 | -131 | +141 | -15.22pp |
| Cameron SkatteboWk 3 | Receptions Over 1.5 | -143 | -280 | +14.84pp |
| Lamar JacksonWk 3 | Passing TDs Under 1.5 | +129 | -137 | +14.14pp |
| Noah FantWk 4 | Receptions Over 2.5 | +159 | +307 | -14.04pp |
| Alvin KamaraWk 2 | Rush + Rec Yards Over 24.5 | -172 | -336 | +13.83pp |
| Alec PierceWk 1 | Receiving Yards Over 59.5 | +180 | +350 | -13.49pp |
| Devin SingletaryWk 2 | Rushing Yards Over 14.5 | -113 | +147 | -12.57pp |
| Emmett JohnsonWk 4 | Receptions Over 1.5 | +165 | +100 | +12.26pp |
| Quinshon JudkinsWk 3 | Receptions Under 2.5 | -116 | -193 | +12.17pp |
| Derrick HenryWk 3 | Rush Attempts Over 17.5 | -135 | -229 | +12.16pp |
| Rashid ShaheedWk 4 | Receptions Over 2.5 | +160 | -102 | +12.03pp |
| Javonte WilliamsWk 3 | Receptions Under 2.5 | +137 | -118 | +11.93pp |
| Hunter HenryWk 3 | Receptions Under 3.5 | +108 | -150 | +11.92pp |
| Ladd McConkeyWk 3 | Receptions Under 4.5 | -146 | +110 | -11.73pp |
| Rhamondre StevensonWk 3 | Rushing Yards Over 39.5 | -123 | -202 | +11.73pp |
| Quentin JohnstonWk 3 | Receptions Over 2.5 | -201 | -360 | +11.48pp |
| Alec PierceWk 1 | Receiving Yards Over 69.5 | +266 | +531 | -11.47pp |
| Brian Thomas Jr.Wk 4 | Receptions Under 2.5 | -132 | +120 | -11.44pp |
| Devin SingletaryWk 2 | Rushing Yards Over 9.5 | -223 | -136 | -11.41pp |
| Chase BrownWk 5 | Rush Attempts Over 17.5 | +116 | +186 | -11.33pp |
| Davante AdamsWk 4 | Receptions Under 4.5 | +121 | -130 | +11.27pp |
Showing the 40 largest moves in either direction, not the best ones — the misses are on this page for the same reason the hits are.